PinnacleSports.com Continues Ground Breaking Series of Baseball Betting Strategy Articles

Willemstad, Curacao (PRWEB) August 10, 2007 -- Leading online Sportsbook, PinnacleSports.com (http://www.PinnacleSports.com), continues its ground breaking series of betting strategy articles, with Pinnacle Pulse 73, explaining the merits of betting on baseball Team Totals. Sports handicapping normally evaluates an individual team's offensive and defensive capabilities. The performance of one during a game will usually influence the other, such as when and where the offense will receive the ball and under what circumstances. Baseball is different, as regardless of how well the offense or defense are performing, each team receives twenty-seven outs to score as many runs as they can, and a further twenty seven outs to limit the opposing team to as few runs as possible.

This provides bettors with the opportunity to focus on the element of the game where their opinion is strongest, and profit where this view differs from that of the market. The way to do this is to bet on Team Totals.

Team Totals let a player bet on the number of runs one team will score in contrast to other lines that depend on the scores for both teams combined. When betting Over 4.5 runs for the Yankees, the bet wins if they score five or more runs. Unlike betting a Moneyline, Runline or Total, how many runs New York's pitching allows is irrelevant, allowing the bettor to focus on just their offense and the opposing defense.

Don't Forget the Juice

The concern with Team Totals is the same with all proposition bets; the 'juice' or commission charged is higher than on the main betting lines. Most books will charge -115 (wager $115 to win $100) to bet Team Totals, whereas PinnacleSports.com (http://www.PinnacleSports.com) prices Team Totals at -108 (wager $108 to win $100). Though a significant saving, generally there isn't enough action for books to deal the line as sharp as for Totals or Runlines, and even PinnacleSports.com only offer $2,000 limits.

However, as Team Totals are closer to a main betting line than they are to a proposition bet, they aren't a true main line. With odds of -115 (1.87) it is tough to win, but far from impossible. The key is to play at a good number but also knowing that;

?    One can give this line a lot more attention than the book probably is

?    Many books and players don't understand what team Totals are worth

Common Mistake In Calculating Team Totals

The instinctual perception of Team Totals is that they should add up to the Total for the game, but this is incorrect. If both teams will score 5 or more runs exactly half the time, meaning both teams have a fair Team Total of 4.5, the game could be safely bet to go over 9.5 at even money even though the Team Totals only add up to 9. That's how runs are distributed. It's possible to score 24 runs in a game, but it's impossible to score less than 0.

Over or Under??

If the two numbers add up to the Total or higher, it's safe to pay scary looking juice to go under the Team Totals. If they add up to a half run less than the Total, it's usually all right to go under as long as the combined juice is small. If you actively like the under that makes these plays that much easier, and with experience a player can learn to spot which line is in error.

Going Over is harder, and there are many books where it is effectively impossible to beat the Over because

?    squares tend to go over not realizing that the numbers don't add up the natural way,

?    squares often bet with an unfounded optimism on what they'd like to see happen i.e. plenty of runs, and not what is most probable.

PinnacleSports.com (http://www.PinnacleSports.com) has much sharper players and far lower juice, making it far more common for an over on a Team Total to have value. A safe and effective way to recognize correct Team Totals is to compare them to similar games. Though extra work, this teaches how to recognize value allowing bettors to hone in on areas where the Pinny Lean deviates from the market number, presenting another opportunity to profit.

Soft Lines

Team Totals like Runlines fluctuate in relation to the Moneyline and Total, but unlike Runlines many books do not link them as carefully and might even trade them completely independently. Therefore, if there is a large 'steam' move on a main betting line;

?    Check whether the Team Totals have been updated.

?    Compare the odds to the betting line at Pinnacle Sports or against similar priced games.

?    The success rate on this is larger than one might expect, and sometimes bettors can even find a line that has gone in the opposite direction to the main lines.

?    If someone bets the mathematically incorrect side of a Team Total, especially if this happens twice, it's likely to cause the line to move and offer value. Even PinnacleSports.com (http://www.PinnacleSports.com) can't be sure to have the best of it, especially against sharps, so often we have to move the line and offer what we think is likely to be value.

While the under is more likely to offer value - especially if not playing at PinnacleSports.com (http://www.PinnacleSports.com) - the over can off real value in the right spot. It's never a sure thing that a pitcher will get it done. Sometimes a pitcher is hurt or just can't cut it in the majors. In those spots, the over on the other Team Total can be a monster favorite, much more than the over or the other team. The extra juice is a good reason to be cautious, but Team Totals are an excellent way to both find value and "bet on exactly what you like, and nothing you don't."

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